Atalanta v Juventus

Serie A Week 28 –  Sunday, 6th March – 14:00 GMT – Stadio Atleti Azzurri d’Italia

Juventus

Even though they are on top of the Serie A table and have reached the Coppa Italia final, it is time for Juventus to bounce back. The midweek game was simply terrible and inexcusable: The Bianconeri should never concede three goals, let alone against Inter. It is understandable that the players might underestimate the match, considering the result of the first leg and the fact that they had just beaten Inter comfortably again, but that is when the coaching staff has to chime in and keep them focused and motivated. Anything can happen if that does not occur and Juventus were lucky to squeak by in the penalty shootout. If the opponents are hungrier, you have no shot. Hopefully, this consequence free lesson will be treasured.

The midweek game also highlighted another fact in my opinion. It is easy to fantasize here or on Twitter about tactical changes, about how maybe it is time to move on from 3-5-2, how well Juventus might look with a pure trequartista or with a trident with two real wingers. The reality is that it takes a lot of work to create a different scheme that functions properly, to build the much needed mechanisms and chemistry and for players to get used to that. You can not just change it overnight: basically anytime the squad has moved away from 3-5-2 or other patched formations that included three centre-backs, it has struggled.

The problem resurfaces every time one of the BBC is injured, like this weekend, as it appears Giorgio Chiellini will have to sit out to nurse his sore calf. Daniele Rugani did not have a good game against Inter and made a crucial mistake, but I don’t think there is a real alternative, other than to just let him play and mature. As for 4-3-1-2, Roberto Pereyra is too far behind from a conditioning standpoint to be effective and Hernanes has been too up and down. Wednesday’s 4-4-2 did not work at all.

The good news is that Claudio Marchisio should be back, unless he is too busy bashing TV analysts on Twitter. He will play in the midfield alongside Sami Khedira and Paul Pogba. There is a little more uncertainty about the flanks: I do not think this game requires a full-defensive mode, meaning Stephen Lichsteiner and Patrice Evra, so one between Juan Cuadrado and Alex Sandro will feature. Evra rested during the week, so my educated guess is that Cuadrado and Evra will be the couple in this one.

The starting attacking duo of Mario Mandzukic-Paulo Dybala will return and try to feast on a struggling team. The Croatian striker has yet to score in 2016, mostly due to injuries, so it would be nice for him to break the drought, though his contributions are obviously much appreciated, even when he does not find the bottom of the net.

Probable lineup: 

3-5-2: Buffon; Barzagli, Bonucci, Rugani; Cuadrado, Khedira, Marchisio, Pogba, Evra; Mandzukic, Dybala.

Injuries:

Chiellini (calf), Caceres (Achilles), Sturaro (toe). 

Suspensions:

None.

Atalanta

Atalanta have not won in the last 12 matches and they are plummeting in the standings. They had a good enough start and they have been able to pick up some draws here and there so they are not (yet) in the most dangerous part of the table, but winning some games would certainly be nice. The last time they conquered three points was against Palermo in early December.

Why such a long skid? Atalanta is not a rich club and since they got off to an awfully good start, they cashed in early on some of their talents and they sort of anticipated the summer window. They sold Alberto Grassi and Maxi Moralez and they let go of their long-time standard-bearer, German Denis. Obviously, this had some repercussions on the quality of the team, especially because they have acquired some foreign youngsters that need time to adjust to Serie A. They thought they could afford such a move and, despite the long streak of disappointing results, their assessment was probably correct, since they still have a 7-point lead over Frosinone, but there are also four teams in between. They have still a lot of leeway and the relegation battle is such a turtle race this year.

Their main threat Alejandro Gomez is out with a cracked rib, so that’s a lucky break for Juventus. The veteran coach Edy Reja can pick between two systems. He can either replace Papu with Marco D’Alessandro, who is pacey but a little botcher, therefore maintaining the 4-3-3 they have used all year long. Or he can switch to a much more defensive 3-5-2, coupling a pure centre-forward with Alessandro Diamanti, who came in to replace Moralez but has looked way out of rhythm so far. Mauricio Pinilla has a bruised calf and he should miss the game, therefore Marco Borriello will step in.

The midfield will be formed by Luca Cigarini, Marten De Roon, one of the cleverest acquisitions of the past summer and the next in line to move to top club, and Jasmin Kurtic. Cigarini has been dealing with a nagging injury but should be ready to go, otherwise the winter acquisition Remo Freuler will take his place. There are plenty of doubts about the defence. Gabriel Paletta and Rafael Toloi have recovered after missing some games in the last month and in theory that is their best couple, but the coach likes Andrea Masiello so much. Masiello could also slide on the flank in case they opt for a four-man defence, where Andrea Conti has been playing well as of late. They are better with 4-3-3 but the more defensive option is always on the table when Juventus comes to town.

Their style of football is pretty old-fashioned, just like their coach: gritty defence, slow pace, physicality in the midfield and lot of long balls and crosses. Juventus have swept the last eight games at Atleti Azzurri d’Italia.

Probable lineup: 

4-3-3: Sportiello; Conti, Masiello, Paletta, Drame; Cigarini, De Roon, Kurtic; Diamanti, Borriello, D’Alessandro.

Injuries:

Gomez (ribs), Carmona (hip), Pinilla (calf). 

Suspensions:

None.

Formation

Statistics

Infographics from Sporticos.com