(Contribution from Belgianjuventino)
As the 2015/2016 season is fast approaching its end and EURO 2016 is beginning to loom over the world of football, the transfer window in turn is awakening from its slumber. The rumour mill has already started grinding out possible (or absolutely not possible, whatever suits the moment) transfers we can expect in the summer.
Turning our eye to our beloved La Vecchia Signora, one of our players is yet again in the middle of a speculation war. Our French prodigy, Paul Pogba. Will he stay at Juve or will he seek greener pastures?
The likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester City, PSG, United and Chelsea are all reported to be pondering a big money deal for Pogboom. Especially Barcelona is a likely destination, given that Pogba is friendly with Neymar and a fan of Messi. I don’t expect a Premier League return for Pogba, United won’t be willing to spend so much on their former player and Pogba joining any other English team than United seems also unlikely. (Maybe Chelsea, since Conte became coach there?)
The next Juve legend on the rise
The reported value of Pogba varies between 80 and 100+million euros. Pogba himself has a long lasting contract at Juve (2019) and has mentioned he has no desire to leave. He is perfectly happy in Turin. Our management has no intention of cashing in on the player, other than if Pogba wants to leave.
Which would push a possible transfer sum closer to the 100mill sum than the aforementioned 80 million. We also have to consider the influence of a positive/negative EURO campaign. Assuming Pogba and France will at least make it out of the group stage, I expect EURO 2016 to increase Pogba’s value.
So assuming Pogba would bring in 100 million euros, should Juve sell him or not? A tricky case to ponder in the least.
From a financial point of view, selling him for that sum would mean a gigantic profit for Juve. We only paid a training compensation fee for him when we took him from United. We can start dreaming about what players we could lure with that much money to spend. We could get a world class replacement for Pogba and add an elite striker to the squad as well. ( I will not go into names here)
Pogba as a player would be sorely missed however. His influence on the team is not to be downplayed. Paul is a very complete player, brimming with talent and still at such a tender age, you can build a team around him that would last for another 10 years. Who needs money when you already have Pogba in the ranks?!
I took a look at what happened to other teams who sold a key player for an enormous fee. How did they spend it and did they improve the team?
The most expensive player of all time presently is Gareth Bale, who moved from Tottenham to Real Madrid for no less than 100.7million euros. Tottenham splashed this sum on 7 different players, in pursuit of a stronger team. Those seven players were: Roberto Soldado (Valencia), Erik Lamela (Roma), Etienne Capoue (Toulouse), Vlad Chiriches (Steaua Bukarest), Paulinho (Corinthians), Nacer Chadli (Twente) and Christian Eriksen (Ajax).
Current status:
Soldado: Sold for a loss to Villareal
Lamela: Still present, but has floundered at Tottenham. A shadow of his former self in his first season. He has rediscovered some of his old form this season though, so should not be written off yet.
Capoue: Sold for a loss to Watford and performing well there.
Chiriches: Sold for a loss to Napoli.
Paulinho: Sold for a loss to Guangzhou Evergrande.
Nacer Chadli: Still present and doing a good job. Not outstanding, not bad either.
Christian Eriksen: One of the hottest talents right now, has stepped up and is an immensely important player for Tottenham. Hugely increased in value.
Looking at this, it’s fair to say Tottenham didn’t make the most out of their money. 4 out of the 7 players purchased with the Bale haul of gold have been sold for less money than Tottenham paid for them. Of the remaining 3, only Eriksen has added real quality to the team and is the only player who can be sold for a profit.
Did Tottenham profit by selling Bale? In my view, not really. They have Eriksen, they have Chadli and Lamela, but they wasted the rest of the money.
That other expensive player is the Portuguese superstar Cristiano Ronaldo. He was bought for 97million euros from Manchester United. Curiously, Ferguson decided not to spend the money on a direct replacement. They invested it to relieve debts mostly. Not much to discuss from a sporting point of view, but fast forward to the present and United are struggling badly to get into European football. This has nothing to do with the Ronaldo sale of course, but it suggests they could have spent their money more wisely to prevent this.
They made the mistake of not renewing their squad, not starting a new cycle, until it was already too late. They didn’t give youth a chance( see Pogba!) and had been relying on their veterans for too long. (Sounds familiar, Milan and Inter?) Realising the need for mass renovation United have now begun this new cycle, investing in youth and giving them chances to shine: see Martial, Rashford, Lingard, Memphis etc.. However, results have been hit and miss so far, with United struggling to gain all important champions league football this campaign.
After analysing these two transfers, it’s time to focus on the original subject…
What about Juve eh?! We can all think of a similar case in our own story. He is the player we sold for the highest sum in our history, he is a countryman of Pogba and is currently the Real Madrid coach. Zinedine Zidane!
Zizou in the most beautiful shirt he ever wore…
Comparisons are rife between Pogba and Zidane. Both are French, both are central midfielders, both have technique and creativity that goes beyond imagination and both are simply fantastic footballers.
How did Juve spend the 75 million they received from Madrid and was it money wisely spend?
Zidane was sold and in came the new lads: Gianluigi Buffon(23yo), Pavel Nedved(28yo) and Lilian Thuram(29yo). All 3 of them were a huge success. The Zidane money gave Juve the means to plug some holes in the squad and remain competitive both domestically and in Europe. Juve won 4 Scudetti from 2001 to 2006 and came close to Champions League glory twice.
Buffon is still our goalie, Nedved has become a director for the club and Thuram left us for Barcelona after the Calciopoli scandal.
Lippi – Juventus coach at the time – admitted they could not find a new Zidane, but the team got stronger after all.
Curiously, if we compare these 3 sales, only Juve really made a step forward selling their most prized asset at the time. Tottenham and United rather lost out by selling their star player, one could argue. Perhaps this is why Marcello Lippi also advises Juve to sell Pogba and reinvest the money?
Spectacularly enough, Lippi backtracked on his own comment recently, advising Juve NOT to sell Pogba:
If we do sell Pogba, the skills of our management to handle the money and invest it well will be vital to the success of the club: spend it on the wrong player(s) and you have given away a superstar for nothing. That being said, I feel confident Marotta & Paratici will spend it wisely, should Pogba be sold.
We should also note that Juve has a penchant for selling a player when the time is ripe to move him on, cashing in a solid return on our investments (such as Zidane and Baggio).
CONCLUSION
Whether or not we sell Pogba, we should look at the potential positives. If Pogba gets sold, he will bring in a gigantic fee for us. With that money we could buy another 3 great players and perhaps repeat the Zidane story. If Pogba stays at Juve, then we get to enjoy watching him play even longer in our colours. He is a class act and still has a lot to offer, is still improving and has potential in spades to be plumbed.
Should Juve sell him? In my opinion, no. I would keep Pogba and I think that will be the scenario. The only reasons for Pogba to leave are either money or a desire for new experiences in a new league and culture.
He is loved by teammates and fans alike, knows the club and league well, loves being here, has been handed the iconic #10 and he will see his salary go up with Juve too.
Are you in favour of a Pogba stay or a Pogba sale? Feel free to discuss below! I’ll be right in there with all you Juve fans!
Yours sincerely
Belgianjuventino
A welcome and timely second offering, comrade!
The Pogba move is something I had not really considered seriously until recently. And yet Dybala’s words of late suggesting such love for the club that he could become a legend in our colours, whilst welcome and wonderful, also led to brief mention of the number 10 jersey and also the suggestion that Paul may leave. His words were ominous.
And so…I enjoyed the comparison with other clubs who have sold their key player. Spurs spent mainly poorly, yet they find themselves now 2nd in the premiership, only thwarted in their quest for glory by that rarest of things…a real life fairytale. I suspect Lamela would be sold at a loss, though he has gained much ground this season. As for Eriksen, his value is huge, and knowing Levy, he wouldn’t sell for less than 50m.
Still, back to Pogba…
I would say regardless of the EUROS, the price is pretty much set at 100m EUROS. Paul isn’t going to move for money, if that was the case he would have already fled. I strongly believe he has a strident sense of loyalty to Juve and is happy. My hope is that he stays one more season. Yet if he doesn’t…
Man U could afford him. As could Chelsea. Yet neither have champions league for next season. Which is certainly more important to Pogba than the gold. Which leaves Man City, Real Madrid, Barca and PSG. I do not see him in Germany…Man City will lose Toure, and are seeking a CM. Barca and Real seem less needy of Pogba, though have the allure and the funds. PSG? Its just the money…
I assume he will stay…yet am well aware that anything is possible, nothing is certain.
Indeed, not to forget that Juve has set a 3weel deadline for any dealings about Pogba. If he gets sold, it should be done pretty fast I assume.
However, I remain a believer that he will stay and thus will not heed Dybala’s words about Pogba
Indeed, that is how it usually works, my friend…Allegri needs to know who he has to work with and Beppe and Fabio need to know which targets to move on…before the Summer.
I know you guys are probably a bit more pragmatic then I am, but I don’t agree with the whole ‘Hopefully he stays for one more season then he can leave” mentality. Pogba should be here to stay and focussed on staying for a long time. Money is a huge factor no doubt, but it is not like we are paying him peanuts anyway. He could make more in England no doubt, but the price of living there is more expensive as well. The Premier League only has money as an incentive over Serie A I feel, the overall quality of football isn’t a vast difference. People like Joleon Lescott are making pound for pound more than Pogba is making at the moment, which indicates just how economically favored they are though.
The overall standard of Serie A is not great at the moment as well, which is making it difficult for top class talent from abroad to come in. I have to blame both of the Milanese teams for this, as they have been a pathetic sight of their former selves over the last 3-4 seasons. This would mean that Serie A isn’t as much of a challenge to players like Pogba and Dybala anymore, which for me as a tifo Juventino isn’t a huge worry, but for the overall state of Calcio it needs to be a bit more competitive. And if it is more competitive, then Pogba will have a greater incentive to stay, and not just for the coveted Champions League that Buffon and co. deserve.
I very much like your idea of long term Pogba commitment, comrade, yet with Raiola as his agent and his own ambition to become one of the true greats of the game, I cannot see him remaining at Juve for more than two more seasons at the very most. If we were to win the champions league next season he would perhaps be more likely to leave, as what would be left to win with Juve? Other than the ballon d’or?
I would add that London especially offers huge allure to anyone with mega wealth. It is one of the most interesting, lively and culturally deep cities of history. Completely different lifestyle to Italy. Also the premiership as a far more lively and exciting spectacle with its global audience dwarfing all other leagues and increasing collection of the world’s best players (outside of the top 2/3 in Spain, Juve and Munich) offers more than merely financial clout.
Unfortunately the most powerful elements in society more often than not get their way. We have our history and perfect conduct towards Paul, ongoing domestic success, steady improvement in Europe and a squad which is strengthened year upon year…all in our favour.
Still only 23, and of herculean physical constitution, there really is no burning need to leave. Yet next season’s champions league campaign may have a bearing on his movements thereafter…Part of me suspects that he has decided not to leave Juve until winning the ballon d’or and champions league, and so its not the money which could send him elsewhere its his belief that those goals, his own goals, can be met with Juve. That is the decisive factor
I think we would all like him to stay forever, but as TGP has said already below, it seems unlikely that this will be the case.
In my view, we should enjoy him for as long as it lasts and we’ll see what happens. If he does leave I will feel sad to see him go, but the huge bag of money will certainly attract new blood for us to cheer for!
Juve fortunately is not dependant on Pogba.
Hello fans of Juve. I think pogba is a key player and his departure would be an earnings, but it could happen that would be lost with Juve players as they make up game. And he would lose the title of 2017. Therefore, I would pogbu left. You can sell it later is not so old. When you let him and buy Isco and James Rodrigues. Juventus then has a great chance to win the Champions League. I’m a big fan of Juve and his departure would be terrible. I wish the firm commitment and a good tactic … Like Pogbooom
I advise not to sell
Welcome aboard, Dany! And thanks for your input…I think we are all agreed that not one juveninto is eager for Paul’s departure, for obvious reasons. Still, its a possibility worth considering, given every top side in the world covets his signature.
I happen to think he’ll stay – for many of the reasons you mentioned above. and I hope he does. My own pet theory is that he’ll remain at least to try and get Buffon his coveted UCL trophy, in the next two years.
I also took a different spin from Dybala’s words, although I could have read a bad translation. I took them to be a quiet plea for Pogba to stay – you can’t break up the dab team!
Thats a nice theory – Could be something that Pogba values!
we can hope! great read by the way – fun to see the spurs and utd analysis.
Happy you liked it!
Pogba must stay. Apart from what you mentioned in your article above, there are a couple of very important factors which should make management make sure he doesn’t go anytime soon.
1. Pogba is becoming a superstar, he is able to attract new Juventus fans from all over the globe, he is a player like Ronaldo & Messi in terms of being a star, not just a great footballer. More fans, more revenue from merchandise in the long run. I have been a Juve fan since 1994, but recently i notice a younger generation of fans swaying towards supporting our team because of players such as Pogba mainly. In the long run, Pogba might bring in more revenue that $100 mill.
2. Pogba still hasnt reached his prime, if he is this mature and talented at such a young age, one might only imagine how influential and effective he will become in the years to come, winning games and trophies, which also bring awarded money from CL & Serie A.
Juve mgmt must build a team around this player, I agree to some extent with your bit on Zizou, but Nedved (as much as I like him, absolute legend) did not deliver the CL for us, and Zizou went on to do just that with Real Madrid. Pogba has potential to become a legend, mgmt must hold on to this player at any cost.
Ive been watching Juve since Baggio joined, and in all honesty I cant remember anyone with such natural talent as Pogba possesses to have played for us – apart from the divine ponytail himself. Dare I say Paul will outshine Zidane?!
Hi there and if you are new – welcome to our community!
You mention good points there friend. Young and talented players create a successful vibe and attract new fans – and in doing so, more income for the club!
A bold statement there, but I like it! Why not indeed, Pogba can go far with his talent and attitude.
We can call ourselves blessed indeed with players like Pogba, Dybala, Morata, Rugani and so on, who can, will or already are becoming fan favourites.
And for good old Nedved, what a shame he didnt get to play in that CL final. Had he played, maybe we would have won it?
thanks, been following you guys on twitter for a while.
two instances i find hard to forget when it comes to Juve in CL.
1 – Nedved’s 2nd yellow card vs Madrid in semis, and more recently…
2 – Cuadrado’s missed chance to put us up 3 – 0 up against bayern in the final minutes of the 1st half in Munich.
Nice to have you here! Those are indeed two haunting memories, leaving us wondering what could have been..
But chins up and forward we go, better luck in the next CL run!
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It is true 🙂
Well said.
Great to see an article written by you, Belgian. It was a good read.
Should Pogba stay or should he be sold? I want him to stay. I don’t like uncertainties and if Pogba leaves it’s gonna be very uncertain if we can bring in quality matching his. Also very unlikely we can bring back his love for the club, there’s no doubt he feels that. Back then Moggi sold Zidane and brought in 2 players that eventually became club legends, it’s unlikely that’s gonna happen a second time, also considering players loving a club was more common back then. We already lost Vidal last season, which i still think is a huge miss, we need Pogba to stay atleast a couple more years, atleast. I want him to become a legend here.
Thanks Maarten! My second piece and I intend to do a whole lot more 🙂
It is indeed a tricky case, having a lot of money is one thing, spending it wisely is another.
Hopefully he stays in Bianconeri colours for another 10years!
Totally in agreement with you James !
Well thought article, great analysis Re; Spurs, United an us – Keep the Pogba, he’s going to develop into a superstar. He works in synergy with his teammates – Rather than thinking about selling him, we should be building around him for the future.
Additionally, i wish Raiola would lose his voice. I dislike him immensely.
Glad you like the article chief!!
Raiola is very much a dubious figure, he brings talent and takes it away..
I just want to throw it out here, not the best thread for it, but whatever.. Justice has been done, Bayern is out! Atletico was in the exact same situation as us and they did what we couldn’t. Bayern should have been out 2 rounds ago. Yeah i’m still not over it.
I hope Atletico wins the final as well. We actually did beat Bayern, our third goal was incorrectly called offside, it should have been 2-3 for us and no extra time..
Exactly.
i hear ya, im still not over it either! Not only were we cheated, but it felt we were also robbed. Anyway, I hope Atleti win the CL.
Reporter – why did you leave Juve for bayern?
Vidal – to win the CL
Atleti – sure you will
🙂
This would be even more savage if we would win it next season xD
First of all I want to say that it’s the first time I comment here, and it’s a lovely blog with excellent articles. Kudos to you guys!
The problem with comparing Zidane and Pogba’s case is that it’s not identical for many reasons:
1- 75 million in 2001 is worth more than 100 million in the 2016 very much inflated market. I don’t think that a 100 million can get us three world class replacements nowadays especially since Gomes is almost worth 50 millions (35+15 reported) and an out of favor James with a discount will cost no less that 50 millions as well. So in both cases we get one extremely talented but not proven or an out of favor superstar for half what pogba is worth, and both are not guaranteed to succeed nor will fill Pogba’s boots completely. I rate Pogba higher than them and much more talented.
2- When we sold Zidane, we had a rather stable team. It’s not the case here. We just lost our two main midfielders last year (Vidal & Tevez), and paid the price early in the season for having an unfit midfield with lower chemistry (Especially since Marchisio and Khedira were injured). So if we sell Pogba, and with the distant injury of marchisio, we would have lost our 4 main midfielders in just 1-2 seasons. That’s never good for stability even if we replace them with world class midfielders. Juventus have been very wise in terms of integrating new comers patiently into the team, therefore such move will prove to be against their philosophy of stability and gradual integration.
3- Modern football is all about marketing and popularity. It’s what brings the highest revenues, sponsorship and TV deals. Pogba is already a superstar, with an enormous ceiling for marketing. If we lose him, we won’t compensate that even if we bought both of Isco and James. Pogba has been the most wanted player in Europe for 3 years now and he is pipped by many to be a future balon d’or winner. We can’t let such player slip from our hands.
4- When we sold Zidane, he was in his late twenties. Pogba is still in his early twenties. I wouldn’t mind selling him when he’s at Zidane’s age. But not yet, he’s still growing.
5- And the most important point: We still only have a maximum of 2 years of Buffon-Chellini-Barzagli (At best), and neither Marchisio nor Khedira are getting younger. In other words, we will be forced to do an overhaul of the squad soon, but not now. Now we have a well established squad who is challenging for the champions league. We need to make the most of these two years by only reinforcing this squad. We dont have time to mingle with it and test our chances. The practical side of football doesnt allow that. Le us focus in these two seasons on winning the champions league and then we can discuss selling pogba for a wider overhaul of the squad.
6- We are in no urgent financial need to sell. We can still reinforce the squad with world class players without selling Pogba, so why should we? Pogba is only gaining value by the year, and the more we keep him, the better it is from a sporting and financial point of view.
Peace out brothers and sorry for the long post.
Welcome! Good points, i agree about having to keep this team together for now. With Chiellini and Barzagli getting older and older, i’m glad Rugani seems to be improving. Maybe we can play with 2 CB’s in the future, Bonucci and Rugani.
Hi Imad, awesome that you have started commenting here, hopefully we’ll see you post more often! Thank you for the elaborated feedback!
I fully agree to your points. The transfer prices are enormous nowadays, but even back then Buffon cost us over 40mill!
We should try to keep Pogba, but if he doesnt want a stay there is no point forcing it.
Pogba is probably our best asset when it comes to marketing, so there would definitely be a loss there – but without figures its hard to say what brings in the most profit: Pogba or the combined sum of those who come in?
And another good point considering our defense, dont forget Bonucci is also 29 now. We should add youngsters while we still have time to let them develop slowly into starting players!
Oh and we love long comments, keeps the spirit alive and kicking eh!
comrade Imad! Welcome to the community. And the devil take you! For an apology? For such an in-depth, well composed and most very welcome contribution? No, my friend…you are to be praised for your words, which are well thought out and sensible. Keep them coming!
I would agree with you on point 1. Prices have sky-rocketed, and anyone considered world class, especially of a decent age, will cost closer to 50m. As an example, Dybala will end up costing us 40m. He was not at all proven at the top level, with merely one season of Serie A in his fancy boots! There are also wages to consider. For to pick up a 50m player, will surely lead to at least 5m per season, which on a four year contract puts his cost at 70m. Indeed, Pogba for 100m will allow us to sign 1-2 established top drawer players, and then who is to say they will be a success? I cannot recall a portuguese player performing exceptionally well in Serie A since Rui Costa! Lest we forget Tiago…who was superb at Lyon and Chelsea, then atrocious in our colours. Once elsewhere, he was then again back to his usual solid form.
The rest makes perfect sense. And as for Pogba…I believe we will adopt the same approach as we have with others; he will leave when he wants to leave. No doubt we will try to persuade him otherwise, but if his head and heart are made up, that will be the decisive factor.
I wonder your thoughts on the flurries of reports (seems all from the same singular tabloid source, just rehashed ad infinitum) on the purchase of Matic from Chelsea?
The season before last he was a colossus on the premier league. Absolutely outstanding. Indeed his form dropped horridly this season, but so did every other player around him save perhaps solely Willian. The monster has regained rhythm under Hiddink, and I believe he would make an outstanding signing. Perfectly able to replace and perhaps even improve upon Marchisio, at least in the Regista/DM role. I would much rather we spent 20m on the Serbian, than a similar amount on Cuadrado, or even 50m on Gomes. For he seems far more suited to our needs and also, I have seen him perform heroics on a consistent basis. It would also leave us more gold to focus on the elusive trequartista position. Again Gomes could be that man, yet what of Bernado Silva?
Matic, Silva, a decent RB with Morata and Pogba staying and we would be far stronger a side for an outlay of perhaps around 70m, with money coming in from sales of Hernanes, Pereyra, Zaza. I see us also adding an experienced CB, yet this makes sense only if we are to persevere with the 3-5-2 which has served us so damn well for many moons. Yet that precludes the trequartista! If we are to move to a back four, then our present quartet of CBs are more than enough.
I would also bring in Mandragora. Whilst Lemina has been trialled in the regista/DM tole, he seems far more naturally a box to box midfielder, which leads him as understudy to Khedira. On the other side, Asamoah can play the same role with Pogba. Yet what of Sturaro? Regardless, I see Rolando as the ideal candidate for the back-up to whoever we sign to replace Claudio.
Keep posting!
Cheers, TGP
Great analysis. Does anybody know how much Pogba makes for certain? The last figure was €4.5mil. I think, if Juve want to keep him, they would need to pay him something like €10mil, which he can easily get from other rich clubs. But then if Pogba is making €10mil, Dybala and our most prized players will ask for deals with larger salaries. Before we know it, our wage bill will balloon out of control. I hope Juve management find a way to compensate Pogba well and still keep the team’s economic structure healthy.
Thanks! Last I heard, Juve is going to bump his wages to 6mill (coming from 4,5)