Juventus v Napoli

Serie A Week 25 –  Saturday, 13th February – 19:45 GMT – Juventus Stadium

Juventus

Juventus and Napoli predictably won their respective matches last Sunday, thus arriving to Saturday’s big match with a two-point difference in favour of I Azzurri. The Bianconeri worked very patiently around Frosinone’s bus last week and ultimately found the deadlock-breaking goal, thanks once again to Juan Cuadrado, and put the finishing touches on the win with a late Paulo Dybala score. Obviously, we would always like to see a repeat of the Chievo performance, which was the best of the season by a wide margin, but we have to cut the team some slack when they play thrice in seven days and most importantly when they have won 14 games in a row, which still sounds ridiculous to me. With a full week to prepare, I expect them to be sprier than against Genoa and Stellone’s squad.

Unfortunately, the bad news once again comes from the infirmary: Giorgio Chiellini has suffered a calf strain and will miss about three weeks. I do not dare to doubt the evaluations of our coaching and medical staff, but Giorgio was spared in the previous two games because he had muscle fatigue and was an injury risk: he played three days later and got hurt. He could have been easily rested against Frosinone, which is not an offensive juggernaut by any stretch, so he would have had other five days to heal. Instead, he will miss the Serie A game of the season and the first leg of the Bayern Munich clash. The situation is baffling to me: it was an unnecessary risk, likewise fielding Leonardo Bonucci, who was one yellow card away from disqualification, but fortunately was not booked.

The Chiellini and Caceres injuries highlight another problem: due to the lack of playing time, the coach now does not have enough confidence in Daniele Rugani in such a big spot. Nobody can blame him for that and it would be a huge risk to put the youngster in a sink-or-swim scenario, but we would have not been at this point if the Italian defender was fielded from time to time.

Without Chiellini, it is possible that we will see a switch to a four-man defence. Anyway, considering the personnel and the coverage, even if on paper it might be a 3-5-2, it will be a masked four-man line. Stephen Lichsteiner will serve as right centre-back and will take care of Lorenzo Insigne, while Bonucci and Andrea Barzagli will guard Gonzalo Higuain. Patrice Evra will be the left wing back, but he will keep an eye on José Maria Callejon, therefore taking on heavy defensive duties.

Sami Khedira has recovered but he is not expected to start, Stefano Sturaro is set to complete the midfield with the usual starters Claudio Marchisio and Paul Pogba. Alvaro Morata and Dybala will vie for the striker’s duo. The only real doubt about the lineup is between Cuadrado and Roberto Pereyra. The choice will dictate whether there will be a fluid 3-5-2/4-3-3 or a standard diamond formation. There is an outside chance Pereyra will play in the midfield instead of Sturaro, but maybe the lineup would be a little too offensive.

Probable lineup:

3-5-2: Buffon; Lichsteiner, Bonucci, Barzagli; Cuadrado, Sturaro, Marchisio, Pogba, Evra; Dybala, Morata.  

Injuries:

Chiellini (calf), Mandzukic (calf),  Asamoah (hamstring), Caceres (Achilles). 

Suspended:

None. 

Napoli

Napoli have put together the best winning streak in the club’s history too, as their current run stands at eight wins in a row. Maurizio Sarri showed his versatility when, early in the season when they were struggling, he ditched his 4-3-1-2 for a 4-3-3 where the attackers could play in their natural positions, and the rest is history.

Napoli had great talent in the past years too, but in this season they have better coaching. Obviously two players stand out: Gonzalo Higuain, who has a perfect scoring average with 23 goals in 23 games in Serie A, and Lorenzo Insigne, who has already tallied ten goals and ten assists. Callejon is the perfect complement for the two because his biggest strength is playing off the ball. Marek Hamsik is having one hell of a season as well. It is not a coincidence that so many players are peaking at the same time: they are simply well-managed.

The principles of Sarri’s Empoli are still there despite the tactical switch: possession football, lots of through passes, high offside trap. They create many chances and consequently score a lot: 53 goals in 25 matches, the best in the League. They have the prettiest high pressing in the Italy: Callejon, Allan, Hamsik and Jorginho do a masterful job in stripping the opponents while they are starting the action and quickly feeding the strikers. That is why Higuain is so often in one-on-one or two-on-one situations against centre-backs, where he thrives thanks to his speed, dribbling skills and robust shooting.

The one area where they are a little vulnerable is the defence: it is good and organized, but it is not great in terms of individual talent. If put in difficult situations, both Raul Albiol and Kalidou Koulibaly can be exposed, even though they are having a solid season, especially the Senegalese centre-back, who is taking advantage of his physicality in a better way compared to when he first arrived to Italy. Elseid Hysaj and Faouzi Ghoulam are ok defensively, but they are primarily offensive-minded fullbacks. Furthermore, the fact that Pepe Reina is no longer a consistent goalie is the best-kept secret in Serie A.

Another small flaw I noticed is that they run out of juice after 60-70 minutes because they start very aggressively and they do not have much depth. Although, in the last couple of matches they have paced themselves better.

They have only an injured player: Alberto Grassi, who tore a meniscus in the first practice after joining from Atalanta. They do not have any suspensions because the players that were at risk, Hysaj, Allan and Jorginho, deliberately picked up yellow cards and alternatively missed the last two games.

In the first match, Napoli beat Juventus 2-1 at San Paolo in what was one of the early low points of the start of the season for Bianconeri. Juventus were missing Barzagli, Lichsteiner, Khedira, Marchisio and Mandzukic in that match and were really a shell of what they are today.

Probable lineup:

4-3-3: Reina; Hysaj, Albiol, Koulibaly, Ghoulam; Allan, Jorginho, Hamsik; Callejon, Higuain, Insigne. 

Injuries:

Grassi (knee). 

Suspended:

None. 

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Statistics

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