Whilst conflicting snippets of Morata quotes cause dizziness, a more welcome story has appeared within the same sphere of late. Namely, the possible inclusion of Croatian playmaker Mateo Kovacic into the deal which will see the Spaniard head back to Madrid then onto…who cares where.
Beppe’s hatchet-man, Fabio Paratici, has been a long term fan of the player, and was eager to sign him when at Dinamo Zagreb, and then last year in turn, when he moved to Real from our bosom buddies at Inter. It has been mentioned that Allegri was also keen on the youngster and has recently given his approval for the move to bring him to Turin.
Mateo, recently turned 22 years of age, was picked up by Real last Summer for the princely sum of 31m. He has played regularly in Spain, yet found no in-roads to the first XI. With his club due to pay 30m for Morata, and our own hunt for a creative flair merchant in central midfield, the move makes sense for all parties concerned.
It appears that the player has given his blessing to the move, and yet is eager to now focus upon his national side’s participation in the EUROs. Transfer fees bandied about in the press seem the usual 5-10m (30) above what we are prepared to pay (20) alongside the Beppe trademark loan with purchase option. Which suggests viable negotiation. However, a fleeting concern is that Real may prove hellbent on inserting into the deal their own buy-back clause a la Morata. Which soils the story considerably. For I am a great admirer of the player; he has sublime close control and loves nothing more than driving forward and dribbling past players with pace, trickery and guile. His end product may need fine tuning – understandable at his tender age – yet his flair and confidence are top drawer.
In short, I am close to excited by the news. Other than the suspicion of a buy back clause for Real.
The modern game is increasingly absent of fleet footed dribble merchants, yet their stock remains gold. For when two tribes of the highest order go to war, games are decided by mistakes, luck or moments of magic. Mateo can supply the latter in spades. And to ponder his ability to drive forward at pace, pass opponents at will, create space and chances for the likes of Dybala, Pogba and Berardi…is a welcome sensation.
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I would take him in a heartbeat, strictly on a Marotta special, void of any buyback clause.
I am still not convinced that Morata is a done deal. His comments to the media later in the week have not lead me to believe that he is a goner. If getting Kovacic means goodbye to Morata, I am not in favor of the deal.
I agree
A POST WORTH A FEW MILLION EUROS
JUVE ARE PROBABLY PLAYING AGOLDMAN SACHS BUT ARE SADLY GIVING MADRID A TOP LEVEL FINANCIAL SERVICE FREE OF CHARGE 🙁 AND SIMULTANEOUSLY ACTING AS THE NAIVE INVESTOR.
Well,..
I read the usual Madrid camp style of journalistic pieces now suggesting “Cash plus Kovacic could form the buy back of Alvaro Morata from Juventus”. If that is true I think they are just TRYING TO BE TOO CLEVER. That is a type of deal that makes absolutely no sense at all for Juve, it is a lose (for Juve)/ win (For Real) situation. Thats right folks Journalists think we Juve are that naive, and I really hope we are not that naive.
I apologize if this is rather long post but I think it may worth a few million of call em what you like dollars, euro´s or pounds. WE HAVE TO BE AWARE about these buyback deals. I´ll try to be as brief and direct as I can but still make it very clear.
Most people (specially Journalists) may feel or seem knowledgeable and professional talking fancy talk like salaries, TV deals, UCL money, Kit deals, brand player deals, tax evasion cases, Forbes rankings, loans deals, buyback deals and even ticket´s resale markets, but most of the time their knowledge is as superficial as it gets, they take a tip or two from an expert and bank solely on it thereafter analyzing without any sort of depth and therefore usefulness, so don´t wholly swallow everything you read.
Ill talk the theory of options in finance, and afterwards the actual case. All in general terms and ill try and be as coloquial rather than technical.
THEORY
Football clubs are businesses above all before they are clubs, What the management in transfer season boils down to is to managing a portfoilio of footballing assets which involves maximizing footballing BENEFITS (Players performances and sporting achievements), and monetary PROFITS ($ profits be it prizes, players value rising, sponsorships, merchandise sales etc) from investing in footballing assets (players), while even more importantly MINIMIZING or if given the chance ALTOGETHER AVOIDING THE EXPOSURE TO RISKS (some of them worth millions of dollars if badly managed), bad investments, or flops as they are known in soccer terms that make you take financial hits -insert mad infuriated exploding emoji here-.
Why do Options contracts exist? – Cause they allow to manage risk by allowing 3 things
– Immunize yourself from risk on a particular stake, stance or investment by setting or freezing a predicted/desired convenient price range for an asset (at a set point in the future) at which you will definitely want to own it (because you will break even=not lose from the variation in the price of the asset).
– Speculate by taking a particular stake, stance or investment by agreeing. by setting a predicted convenient price range for an asset (at a set point in the future) at which you´d be willing to own it (because it will give you a profit). On the flip side you lose if at that point in time the asset price is out of the range you predicted.
– Arbitrage (applies to parallel markets so it doesn´t apply to soccer since it is a single market)
a simple call option means investor A (which owns the asset) says there is this asset available for ownership. This is the deal, There is an option to own this asset available for purchase from this set/agreed price (strike price) upwards, from that price downwards you can´t own the asset. If you want to test your chances you have to pay me (Investor B) a service fee, because since you own the asset right now you are bearing 100% of the risk of what happens to the price of the asset in the future, so if you want me to share with you or bear some of the risk so that you are not exposed to lose or win in all cases but you transform it to a:
– in some outcomes you definitely win (because the asset rises in value so that it both covers the fee and still gives you a profit, and you get to keep the asset)
– in some outcomes you definitely lose (be it whether because the asset gains little value but doesn´t cover the fee, and you end up stuck with an underperforming asset, or because if you don´t take the option you lose the asset and the premium). (a certain asset price range) then you will have to compensate me with the fee.
The thing is the one who wanted to speculate on Morata was Madrid, but need Juve to own him first in order for us to act as counterparty for them to do it.
From real Madrid´s point of view (there are 4 cases but ill talk only case 1 which is Morata´s case):
Example you get offered an Option to buy at $20. You pay a premium, lets say $2.
In the future date (Madrid´s point of view):
• If the market price is $25 – Your expectation was correct
You exercise the option (and keep the asset), you buy at $20 what in the market is priced at $25 (You can sell the asset you just took and earn a $5 profit, minus the $2 premium you paid it is a Net $3 dollar profit)
• If the market price is $20 – Your expectation was slightly incorrect
financially doesn´t matter if you exercise the option (and take the asset) or not, if you take the asset at $20 and sell it on market for $20 you recover your initial investment, but you have a net loss, the $2 premium or transaction fee.
• If the market price is $15 – Your expectation was incorrect
You won´t exercise the option, Financially you would be naive/mad to take the asset, Cause if you buy the asset at $20 and sell it to market at $15 you would lose $5 and on top of that the premium, a net $7 loss. So you don´t take the asset and lose only the $2 Premium. And Guess what, He DOESN´T GET TO KEEP THE ASSET, because you can´t have an “option” to keep the asset but get to keep it no matter what the outcome otherwise it is a straight sale but not at full asset price $20 but only at $2 price. An option is a bet on the value of an asset you don´t own at the cost of a small premium (it happens to require a potential buy and a sale at full market price in its mechanichs for you to materialize the profit) but it is not a typical outright sale or interchange of a full asset for full price.
In the future date. Juve´s point of view
• If the market price is $25 – Your expectation was incorrect
Investor A exercises, You are obliged to sell at $20, but you have to buy the asset from market at $25. You lose $5. Still you got paid $2 Premium from investor A. Net loss $3
• If the market price is $20 – Your expectation was slightly correct
Investor A exercises. You are obliged to sell at $20 to investor A, but you have to buy the asset from market at $20. You lose nothing, and get the $2 Premium. Net $2 profit
• If the market price is $15 – Your expectation was correct
You are obliged to sell at $20 to investor A, but you have to buy the asset from market at $15. $5 profit. And on top of that you get the premium. Net $7 profit.
Offering an option (being a counterparty to another investor) requires a contrarian view about the asset compared to the other investor, meaning one of them thinks it will perform and the other one thinks it will flop or underperform, otherwise both would be selling or both buying options to different counterparties Investors C,D,E..etc that do happen to be contarrian.
*Take into account that in financial terms nobody cares whoo keeps the asset in the end as long as the net result is profit. In soccer who keeps the asset actually matters since they will have to pay his wages or try to offload him if they don´t want him, and it matters whether the teams want or need to slot him in their lineups. So it adds another layer of complexity which is balancing the potential sporting gains/losses. apart from the financial gains/losses
It is actually a bit confusing or new to me since I had never considered that additional sporting layer. It is already complex in itself when you consider it merely on financial terms, but though complex doesn´t mean it is impossible to understand if you actually try.
The mistake (since Morata rised in value) I think Juve did is to set a buyback price of $30 million for morata (putting a lid to it, which resembles a more complex options strategy rather than a simple (plain vanilla) call option although that is not the case here since it requires multiple option deals) It would take a really thorough analysis and reading the real agreement to analyze the scenarios down to the last cent so i am only analyzing rather generally here, and for free 🙁 😛 so, bear with me),
Juve should have been paid a lets say $2 million fee independant on the change in Morata´s value in order to offer the call option. now some may say it is a buyback but heck if you are referring to this as a sort of repo deal instead of a Premium you then charge an interest payment which in practical terms is the same thing. and besides if at any point you are engaging in any sort of option deal then IT WILL NEVER BE A REPO OR SALE WITH AN AGREEMENT TO A BUYBACK because if that were the case Madrid would be OBLIGED to buy Morata back, they would have to take him back without uttering a word or whine about it. So you see even there ignorant journalists have also been misleading, but facts speak by themselves since Madrid think they have a “choice” then it is an option contract without a doubt. My point is that no matter if it is an option or a repo there always has to be a compensation, a service or transactional fee received by the other party, in this case Juve (Which has never happened).
But ABOVE EVERYTHING in order for Juve to offer an option it requires a contraran view, a contrarian bet on a player meaning the one who wants an option to buy (Madrid) must think the player will outperform or succeed, and the one who sells the option (Juve) must think the player will underperform or flop. Otherwise it s a dumb, or even suspicious/stinky hideous deal to make in the first place.
But that is if both teams followed a textbook deal, the think which upsets me the most is that the Morata deal seams like a creature come out of failed experiment, an aberration partly dismembered with various extremities out of place with slight resemblance to what you may call human but so hideous in nature that doesn´t seem it can be safely tamed or even allowed to freely exist in the first place.
Like i said I am not an insider at Juve or Madrid but in someplace there must be someone who actually knows what is being done and I hope Marotta knows the implications of what has been agreed regarding Morata both inside,outside, upside down and up again and in every direction so that Juve´s interests are actually protected.
MORATA´S PRACTICAL CASE
CASE A – MORATA OVERPERFORMS AND SUCCEEDS – HIS VALUE RISES
What is Madrid´s point of view?
They had an asset (Morata) with potential to become a prime asset in soccer terms or rise in value in practical $ terms but NOONE guaranteed them neither of those outcomes. If they kept the asset they would be bearing ALL of the risk themselves, and the Morata could as likely have been an utter flop for all purpose and intents.
Juve should not engage in those buyback deals again in the same terms they were made before, because I think there was a MAJOR FLAW in the Morata deal, a major mistake Juve committed maybe out of inexpirience in that kind of deals or maybe out of sheer need (but no one should make an unadvantageous deal no matter what, and even less so if in need..
why was it disadvantegeous? Madrid should have paid a premium fee in order for us to offer them the option contract. Anyone familiar with options contracts knows you don´t offer one for free, that in order to engage in one you have to be compensated and some rules must hold true.
Textboook finance says “An investor must pay an up-front fee or price for an options contract”
Well this post is coming rather too long and it is hard for me to explain such a complex thing down to the very detail only in writing -it would need a book or something- (since it is the first time I think of options in a soccer market, and since there´s the additional sporting layer which was never part of the financial theory in the 1st place but is of equal importance) but overall I think you get the point, this can´t be handled just like your fruit shopping around the corner merchant, this deals seem to be becoming ever more complex so MAROTTA AND CO MUST HAVE THEIR EYES VERY WIDE OPEN, be wary of Madrid or anyone´s offers, and mainly, more importantly, and above all as it is always the best thing to do – GET SOME ADVICE- from a top level financier to make this more Derivative/Hedging type of deals, (Hey Marotta you can even hire me, I will definitely look up to serve Juventus´s interests, besides if by doing a Morata bad deal we are losing between 20 and 45 Million aproximately, why not give me a 2% cut on future deals? If I save Juve lets say half of that on kovacic, meaning 20 Million, I would gladly take that nearly half a million commission. ¡It would make my day! I would even take it in Juventus stock options if we are short on cash for Pjanic..
Heck I am seeing it all so clearly but it is hard for me to say everything I am thinking right now without this becoming a book or me actually finishing this post by the time Morata retires and we have signed 20+ option deals (free of charge) with madrid. So I´ll just post it, since I am acquainted with the VERY BASIC theory and I tell you boys I am seeing it rather clearly from a while ago now (also i assume Marotta and Agnelli as sophistcated businessmen they are have at least the minimum required idea about this type of financial instruments and deals), only till now that I see Madrid´s intention to shove those kinds of deals again right up our noses that I decided i had to speak because as the saying goes when the river sounds, stones are coming, These buyback deals stink, they smell to me rather like rip offs by Madrid .
I think that we were kind of deceived with this Morata Deal because:
From real Madrid´s point of view:
– Madrid always thouught Morata had a lot of potential but were not willing to find out themselves and risk tearing apart BBC, they wanted to not give up entirely on Morata but have a chance to have him back if he exploded to stardom, but how could they do that? If they outright sold him they probably coulde never see him back, if they loaned him they would still be on the hook if he flopped and be stuck with him risking having to take a depreciated asset in their books or sell him at a discount.
They wanted us to buy Morata so that we could then offer them the option to buy him back because there was no other way they would have guaranteed to have Morata back if he exploded as a player but without taking any risk of him flopping except to sell him in the first place (to not bear the risk on him) by means of an utterly cuestionable trick, that allowed them to get him back if he succeeded and even make money on top of it.
Madrid´s game plan: essentially get rid of the player and pocket money, and have someone else take the risk and develop him.
– If he succeeds we take him as if we had had him all along, as if we had taken the risk on him, and developed him, and bore his salary, Although we didn´t and benefit that magically he is now a much better player
– If he flops we got rid of that asset as if he had never been ours, we didn´t gamble on him, didn´t develop him, didn´t pay his wages, but will still pocket a profit on him.
We agreed to switch places with Madrid from not owning the asset to actually owning it so that we could now be in position to offer them a rather clowny speculative vehicle worst of all free of charge and giving a way any right to ownership.
we bore the risk of him becoming a flop.
CASE B – MORATA FLOP
Imagine if Morata had flopped, we would be stuck with a $20 million flop (because thats what we paid) though he would be worth much less in today´s market so juve would either have to pay wages and field an underperforming player, or offload him at a discount to another team (taking a loss). That would be fair for a player you completely owned that if that risk materialized you would bear it but this is not the case, Morata has never been a player we completely owned so that we should bear 100% risk as if we were sole owners.
From Madrid´s point they would have benefitted from having someone else put the player to the test (without risking of ruining their BBC and team harmony) and pay his wages, and if he flopped they pocketed $20 mill without paying a single cent, they got rid of a flop without even having to negotiate for him, without having to look for suitors, and without risking to get stuck with him or having to offload him at a discount) THEY WOULD GET RID OF A FLOP AT FULL PRICE, NO MATTER WHAT FLOP OR SUCCESS THEY WOULD SELL AS EXPENSIVE AS POSSIBLE there lies the falw of that deal, You see? it is clear they transferred the risk to Juve without paying a cent for it and still keeping for themselves the possibility to get him back if they wanted to, what if they had a spot for Alvaro in their team? they would have tested a player and paid net $10 million to Juve to Buy him back (not a cent more as premium) even if his market value was the same as pogba´s. That means a deal like this guarantees you a Morata, a Dybala, or a Pogba for the mere value of cents.
One can say but hey lets just say Juve´s 10 million would be a nice premium, but you are missing the point that if Madrid don´t exercise the option they don´t get to keep the player meaning we would be stuck with the flop, but if he succeeds they either have a much mor evaluable player than he was before to keep for their team or they pocket money on an asset the never gambled on, on a player they didn´t put themselves on the line for. so they win in both A and B scenarios. And make no mistake if the other party (Madrid) wins in either of the 2 scenarios you (Juve) as counterparty will unevitably lose in both of them.
the point of agreeing an option is distributing different price points and the risk associated with it among both parties so that both share risk but also both share or have the corresponding chance to win according to the risk they are getting exposed to. But there were no price points distribution Madrid took the winning chances at all price points while juve took aall the risk at all price points. This rather seems as a clowns financial deal (drawing on a perfectly balanced financial deal and distorting it into a hideous frankensteinistic version of what an option deal is about, and don´t even think it is because applied to football it is what it becomes because that would only deceive someone who just doesn´t know at all or that just wants to be fooled)
Now one can say we benefitted from the player´s performance, his goals, and even from his rise in price but that is fooling yourself, you paid 20 for a player and enjoyed him 2 years but took a risk on him flopping, you paid his wages and suffered his injury absences, now you get $10 back but guess what, THE PLAYER IS NO LONGER YOURS so you end up with no player and no chance to monetize the development you gave him and a mere $10 cents to just try and feel better.
Enjoying him 2 years just compensates his wages and injury risk, not the risk of flopping and his potential development benefits via soporting performance or cash. And I have not even mentioned his growth (la sua crescita) as a player since he has been at Juventus be it in tactical knowledge, experience, confidence, tougher physique etc he has gained at Juve. So guess what, if we want to keep that, if we want to keep him, if we want to keep that upgraded asset guess what we have to pay another 20 – 25 Mill, had we made the deal right and agreed a textbook option we would just keep Morata without paying a cent or if madrid really wanted him (merely for sporting reasons) They would have had to pay us a premium 2 years ago no matter who kept him in the end.
But if that were the case Juve would have to set a premium price and a range of price points because if Juve agrees to offer an option to buy it would mean Juve were betting that Morata was going to be a flop (at least by the expiration or limit date) at some price points . For any bullish bet there must be a bearish bet. I think one major mistake was that $30 million lid we let be put on it. We set ourselves out of any potential gain, because if as an offerent you can only earn a small premium and nothing more and are at the same time frankensteinistically against the most basic nature and logic of the deal allowing for the risk of you not keeping the asset in one of the two scenarios then you better be compensated.
Now if name it as a repo deal rather than an option it is not much different. We still lose in that type of deal too.
Well I actually don´t want to make this post much longer, so i´ll just clear out the repo case for anyone who still dare call it a buyback. If you offer a repo you Investor “A” charge an interest or a fee and pay also the full asset value (almost like a loan) and you take the asset like yours, Then by the time of expiration Investor “B” IS OBLIGED to buy it back from you at full market price (and can´t claim back the interest or fee) if the market value happens to be less than what you sold it for to A, it is your loss (investor B loss), if the market value happens to be higher you pay me Investor “A” the original market price in full and you pocket the difference.
The flaw here on Juve´s side is twofold since we didn´t charge a fee to give that service (because what does it profit me to have an asset that wont gain value -or that even if it gains i still I wont be entitled to that gain, what does it profit me to have it for a short period of time, and what does it profit me the risk of owning it if I am not well compensated, but above all don´t risk ending up stuck with a bad asset?)
The second flaw is that we actually gave madrid not only the chance to “decide” but in fact we actually agreed to giving them the chance to decide first refusal or 1st right or preference to buy him, which in a Repo is just absurd and unheard of because when investor B enters a repo he is OBLIGED to buy back the asset no matter if he incurs in a loss or a gain. We were not rightfully compensated and we took all the risk of ending up with a bad asset. Thank God Morata didn´t flop otherwise we would be screwed.
This Morata deal is an amorphous, incestuous, creature come out of an affair between an option and a repo which happens to solely benefit Madrid. I mean thank God Morata din´t flop otherwise we would be screwed without $10 Mill and without player and only with $10 Mill 8of what we gave madrid) not even as consolation prize but as 50% mitigtion recouping, or reduction in losses.
I think the Nedved-Marotta-Paratici team should add a Top level Financier if we are to engage in more sophisticated type of deals like repos or options or even swaps -Heck do you wonder why swaps are not that common? they also transfer risk in a fashion similar to options, so don´t think they are safer kids play deals.
UNLESS MAROTTA GETS TO MASTER THE FINANCIALS AND THE SPORTING ASPECTS OF THESE OPTION DEALS HE SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THEM AND KEEP DOING OUTRIGHT BUYS OR LOANS ONLY (Which to me seem sort of leasing type deals which are less sophisticated or complex therefore more predictable and trustable.
I am not saying financial instruments are witchery, i am just saying they are like fire or double edged swords, Immensely useful if you know how to use them, but really really dangerous if you don´t. So you bettter know what you are getting into)
If anyone has any feedback, questions, doubts just ask and i´ll explain
There is a graphic that shows what you actually engage in with an option. Taken from:
https://tonygaskins.com/null/738-how-to-trade-vanilla-options-html/
I look forward to JuveFC crew´s opinions on the matter. All I can say is MAROTTA PLEASE NO MORE BUYBACK or OPTION DEALS WITH MADRID, for starters they are not the same thing but totally different.
Huge effort Seb! And I shall delve with more focus later today. Briefly…Whilst players are capital, and the business side of the industry is of ever greater importance, the sporting side is far more important than can be mathematically measured and factored into any form of equation from an accounting perspective.
Andrea Pirlo was signed for $0 and paid 3-4m per season for 4 years. The value we gleaned from that investment is impossible to factor into a number. Pirlo’s contribution on the field, his experience, his gypsy charm and phenomenal self confidence in the changing room, during training…then we lost him for 0$. The four year contribution to our success which again cannot be quantified purely through accounting, as with prestige, reputation, the increased attraction which success breeds for potential new players to head to Turin can neither be quantified.
The Morata deal was odd, yet it was far less about money, far more about Juve believing in the player, as a player, not solely as a piece of capital to sell for a higher price than we purchased in the future if he succeeded in our colours. Not at all…the thinking was that if he succeeds and we treat him well, and he is happy in Turin then he might wish to remain at Juve for many years and become a legend at the club. Again, you cannot quantify these elements of the game. Of the sporting side of the industry.
More to follow, my friend…
Wow! That’s some post. Well done.
I say this a bit depressed about things, and angry too:
In summary, I agree that we should not be a feeder club for Real Madrid, and no more crazy contracts Beppe! Like most I don’t like the Moratta stuff going on, and I don’t want a player who can’t even be considered 3rd choice for a creative midfield role in Los Blancos. Bottom line, he’s a RM reject, otherwise they would not be offloading him, and we would not be offered him. Lets be honest, we were not sniffing around him a few months back. Nobody was talking about a deal for him – then we wanted Isco. But we can’t get him (or Pjanic or Gomez), so hey lets go cheap again and pickup another white label supermarket player!
You can just hear Perez.. “Oh, we don’t want him anymore, and he’s cheap so throw him in front of Juve, they will take him….”. No thank you sir, we should not do that stuff anymore.
I’m not saying he doesn’t have talent. But it’s not clearly enough to get him a spot in their team. So why ours? We know the type of player we need, and whilst he is versatile he is not a master of the roles that we need filling.
As Bleacher Reports somewhat damning review of Kovacic sums up: “Kovacic isn’t really anything; he’s a little bit of everything but not completely something.”
Do Juve really need another ‘not really anything’. We have enough of those already, don’t we?
Pirlo was very much as AC Milan reject, Tevez waa damaged goods, Barzagli was unwanted by a mid ranked bundesliga outfit, Pogba was not deemed special enough to find first team selection at Man U…And I would steer well clear of the half baked bleacher report efforts at journalism, my friend. I reserve judgement on a 22 year old who has shown glimpses of genius and perhaps just needs the right environment and coaching to blossom.
Bleacher is fine. There are other sources that are not so hot on him too.
Pirlo was already a 100% great great player though chap. Tevez was too, regardless of his recent antics – the talent was already fully developed in both of them. Pogba would have made the first team at Utd had his agent not p*ssed off Fergie with wage demands. Barzagli is a solid quality player, but we have enough solid ‘versatile’ quality midfielders – that’s my point.
I thought we have been searching for someone to add some instant magic into the midfield, an already developed game changer? This guy isn’t that player. Lots of players have great potential with lazy wandering runs and good dribbling skill, but there has to be an end product at some point. Currently there appears to be not much of that from this chap. He may come good, but he may not. I would rather take Mahrez or Payet at this moment in time. They have shown end product all season.
I guess there is no greater test laboratory/nursery in european football than our 1st team. It would be nice to have a team that leaves the nursery at some point in the near future though. We won’t win the CL again until we have.
Seb………wow!…..just wow – What a fantastic way to look at the deal – to view it from a purely financial angle gives things a very different perspective- I suppose we are too inclined to view things from a supporters view, and the thus the emotion is always attached.
I feel like a post like this deserves to be an article in it’s own right !
I will need to read again because there’s so much to digest – Fantastic and thanks again for taking the time to write such a detailed explanation
Seb, would you consider letting us add this to the site, as an article in it’s own right ? You can edit if you want to or i can post as it is ? Entirely up to you bud, but i feel it’s worth so much more than being tucked away here.
Hi Boss
I REALLY REALLY THANK YOU as I also thank TGP, and Dar Black for your positive feedback to my comment. It would be a GREAT HONOR to have any one of my opinions featured in the site.
Still, although some dimension of the content I posted might be worth featuring at the site as it is I don´t think featuring any of it literally as I posted is worthy of a feature when compared to the high bar set by posts from you, ¡let alone pieces from TGP!, or from other JuveFC contributors I have seen at the site.
It was a fan comment I made because the Morata deal sets a precedent that puts on the table the possibility of a deal like that repeating again, and i don´t really like that prospect, although in the other hand it may likely have no chance to be repeated.
I must admit I felt rather bad after posting that comment, because I felt it was rather harsh, a bit pompous, a bit of a rant, a bit overreaching, maybe a bit premature, slightly ungrateful or disrespectful (towards our great management which has done a terrific job of taking Juve back on track to its former glory), financially a bit light or vague ()with some guesses or technical mistakes), rushed, not that well structured, too dense, probably stirring, somewhat whinny, not diplomatic at all, and above all not savvy or strategic at all).
I must admit also I was ready more than anything to face huge backlash to it (Or even being torn apart by a forum had I posted it in another site -there the reason why I didn´t- where there were not such polite, thoughtful, understanding, welcoming, knowledgeable, open minded and ultimately great site comrades as here at JuveFC but rather a bunch of ignorant, trolls and haters like there exist in many forums).
Probably my subconscious was telling me there was a slight chance I could get away with it if I posted here among friends, and I was not let down at all, I really value the responses I have got from you guys because you have proven me yet again the true gentlemen you are. So if I were to contribute to a featured piece like an article here at JuveFC I WOULD DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE UP TO PAR and live to the high quality standard set by the site contributors.
So I actually felt bad after posting it and was not comfortable leaving it in the open. Still I left it up for a bit because I wanted to see the feedback and also draw attention to the topic because I wouldn´t like an Option/Buyback deal 2.0 with madird until we see how the Morata deal pans out first. Because that was a move made 2 years ago in a whole different scenario and doesn´t necessarily mean Juve will engage in that type of deal again (thats why I think I was knowingly overreaching a bit).
Now that I have given my take or made my point and got the see what kind of feedback I would get, I just feel right to take that post down (I would feel bad to leave it as it is). Why? because since I have been more frequently visiting and commenting in this site I have talked to a Juventini audience, I have talked to you as insiders, as a guest in a Juve brotherhood, and that´s to whom that post was directed to. Most of the thinks I comment here are thinks I would say to the Juve world be it the tifosi, the players, the management. I could care less what citizens of other teams think about the Juve world or about me.
So I struggle a bit talking to Juventini as if nobody else cared but still knowing this is an internet site in the open, I feel like in a Juventini meeting taking place in the open. I talk here as to Juventini in a more free, relaxed way, as a nobody, but were I to say something that would be drawing undesired attention or be in the open for Juve outsiders to see i´d be more wary or strategic about what I actually say, I mean it would be like laying wide open Juve´s dressing room tactics before a critical match.
So to give a clear response to your suggestion of contributing to an article I am not a writer and I think it shows, so I would look up to your professional expertise and guidance as to how an featured piece should be.
Apart from that without question I would request your moderation or editor approval first, like a symbolic JuveFC seal of approval or blessing. It would be irresponsible and opportunistic from me to the JuveFC image (which has taken you so much time and work to build) to just have you post anything from me without you having a say about it.
About that particular post i would rephrase or completely erase various things and most of all would revise from scratch the financial aspect of it looking for actual data and make a more accurate and valid technical use of the finance theory (because i´d welcome input from whoever happens to know about the finances of the deals specially as it comes when applied to football).
Because i rather rushed to craft a theoretically correct estimated guess about the deal. It was just the broad general idea I have about it. I also think there´s plenty to see unfold in the transfers market before anyone can have a more solid opinion or argument about proceedings so I think any look at it can wait for a further time.
So I look forward to your opinion and thank you again Boss and the juveFC community for the positive feedback.
if he is the main signing then a big no. but if signed as a Central midfielder with don’t interrupting the budget for signing of main trequartista then yes.
Nah, not for me. Too stiff and not versatile enough for my liking. Just focus on keeping Morata with us, and get Pjanic who is way better than Mateo.
So much potential for this young player here. Lets not act like we wouldn’t be glad to take him on to the Juve squad. The question is, where does he play? Who does he replace? I get Marchisio is out for a while but if we are just going to sign this kid to sit on the bench than I rather we not. I get he is still very young but he has allot of experience under his belt. He’s played in so many games for Real Madrid this year and has been outstanding for Croatia. If Allegri doesn’t plan on starting him than I see it as a waste of capital. In all fairness, I think we can give a bit more playing time to Clemenza from our youth team. I think he is so underrated. Fits that #10 we’ve been looking for since Del Piero left. Kovacic has tremendous potential, hell you can even argue that Dinamo Zagreb has the best academy in Europe. The breaking factor would be if Mateo will be a starter or not.
I think Bernardo Silva would fit the team much better than Kovacic. Granted Silva can play just about any offensive position and would be about the same cost wise.
Clemenza tore his ACL in March during the Viareggio. He may be back in training before the end of this year, but will then need 3-6 months to recover physical and mental sharpness. He is rated very highly indeed, alongside Lirola, as our strongest prospects. Such a shame he succumbed to injury…My youth analysis will be published very soon. Just need to smooth out some creases this evening.
Silva seems more sensible, yet Kovacic may have greater potential. Yet can only be played as a tre quartista which could suit us, yet solely if we move to a flat back four…
I think this is by far the most talented group of young players we’ve ever had in our primavera. It would be a shame if they aren’t incorporated in to the team next year. What has been a major setback this season is injuries for us, especially at key moments of the season. I get the primavera is miles below serie a in terms of quality but the experience at young age is so critical. If you look at business model city and push have adapted, they are invested heavily in to youth. Evixence? We keep stealing PSG talent lol. In the long run we need to start developing talent not buying it. I get sometimes you have to spend but often it’s just panic buys. A bit off track in relation to Kovacic, but I can’t see him being worth $25 mill especially if it’s upfront. I pray to god dany Alves mentors lirola as that is invaluable from arguably the best RB ever. Like allegri said, we will buy but only to improve the squad. If we are getting Berardi I don’t see the need for kovacic. I rather use the money for Gabriel Jesus.