Paraguay return to the World Cup stage for the first time since 2010, and their outright odds of 300/1 reflect both the scale of that achievement and the size of the task ahead in a 48-team field. Ranked 24th in the outright market, G. Alfaro’s side are firmly in the longshot tier, yet their defensive organisation and a group draw that offers a realistic route to the round of 32 make certain alternative markets worth considering for Paraguay World Cup betting.
Best Pick: Paraguay to qualify from Group D
Confidence: 2/5
Best Odds: 9/2 (Group D Winner)
Reason: Paraguay’s compact defensive structure gives them a fighting chance in a competitive group, though the United States and Turkey represent serious obstacles.
Paraguay’s World Cup History
Paraguay are making their eighth World Cup appearance in 2026, ending a 16-year absence from the finals that stretched back to their quarter-final run in South Africa. That 2010 campaign remains the high-water mark for Paraguayan football at this level, with Oscar Ruggeri’s generation carrying the side through a knockout run that ended only when eventual champions Spain edged them 1-0 in the last eight.
The years since have been difficult. Paraguay failed to qualify in 2014, 2018 and 2022, missing three consecutive tournaments and spending the better part of a decade as an also-ran in CONMEBOL qualifying. This year’s qualification, secured automatically through the South American round-robin, is therefore a meaningful return rather than a routine appearance.
The table below outlines Paraguay’s record at the last five World Cups, highlighting the lean years and the single notable exception.
| Year | Stage Reached | Manager | Top Scorer(s) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Quarter-finals | Gerardo Martino | – |
| 2014 | Did not qualify | – | – |
| 2018 | Did not qualify | – | – |
| 2022 | Did not qualify | – | – |
| 2026 | Group D | G. Alfaro | Julio Enciso (4 goals in qualifying) |
Current Paraguay Squad and Manager Analysis
G. Alfaro’s Likely Paraguay Shape
Argentine coach Gustavo Alfaro took charge of Paraguay in 2024, bringing a reputation built on pragmatism and defensive structure from previous national team roles with Ecuador and Costa Rica. His Paraguay side lines up in a 4-4-2 base, defending in a compact mid-block and relying on quick vertical transitions rather than sustained possession to create chances. Set pieces are a key weapon, with captain Gustavo Gómez an imposing aerial presence from central defence.
The tactical question for Alfaro is whether he can coax enough end product from a squad that kept things tight through qualifying but struggled to convert defensive solidity into goals against higher-quality opposition at the 2024 Copa América. The balance between staying organised and offering enough of an attacking threat to progress from Group D is the defining challenge of Paraguay’s tournament.
Key Players to Watch
Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras, centre-back) is the captain and the defensive anchor, a dominant aerial presence who also delivers on set pieces at both ends. His experience as Palmeiras captain in the Brazilian top flight gives the backline authority and composure.
Miguel Almirón (Atlanta United FC, midfielder) is Paraguay’s most creative outlet, using his direct running and work rate to link transitions and deliver from wide positions. With 76 caps and 10 international goals, he brings experience as well as quality in a side that can look limited when things do not click.
Julio Enciso (Strasbourg, forward) finished as the leading scorer in qualifying with four goals and is the likeliest source of attacking inspiration. His movement and directness behind defences are central to how Paraguay try to turn quick turnovers into genuine chances.
Diego Gómez (Brighton & Hove Albion, midfielder) provides energy and a two-way presence in central areas, with the capacity to add goals from distance. At 23 he is one of the emerging leaders of a younger generation in this squad.
Antonio Sanabria (Cremonese, forward) offers a more physical reference point up front, partnering Enciso in Alfaro’s likely front two and contributing hold-up play to allow midfielders to arrive in support.
Injury and Selection Watch
No significant injury absences have been confirmed ahead of the tournament. The squad announced by Alfaro is broadly the group that navigated the final rounds of CONMEBOL qualifying, suggesting reasonable continuity in selection. Goalkeeper Gatito Fernández, 38, is the experienced last line of defence with 31 caps, though competition from Orlando Gill of San Lorenzo adds a selection dimension in that position.
The only notable structural question is whether Alfaro opts for Kaku or Ramón Sosa alongside Almirón in wider roles, and how much game time younger options such as Matías Galarza and Damián Bobadilla receive in midfield as the group stage unfolds.
Paraguay’s Route to the Final
Paraguay face the United States first on 12 June in Los Angeles, then Turkey on 19 June in the San Francisco Bay Area, before closing the group against Australia on 25 June in the same venue. On paper, the United States are the group favourites as co-hosts, but Turkey and Paraguay are close enough in quality that second place is genuinely contested. A win or draw in the Australia fixture could be decisive, and that match is listed as a home fixture for Paraguay.
If Paraguay were to reach the round of 32, they would likely meet one of the higher-seeded sides from a neighbouring group, with Brazil, Argentina or a European heavyweight a plausible opponent. The quarter-finals would require defeating two further elite sides, which represents a significant step beyond what this squad has demonstrated. The 2010 quarter-final remains their ceiling, and nothing in recent form suggests that ceiling will be exceeded this time around.
For bettors, this analysis points away from the outright market and toward the stage-of-elimination markets. The price for Paraguay to exit at the group stage reflects genuine probability, while a group stage exit priced at the shorter end of the market range offers limited value given the competitive nature of Group D. The sweet spot is likely the “to reach the round of 32” market, where the Australia fixture in particular provides a realistic path to a second-round appearance.
Paraguay World Cup Betting Markets Explained
Several markets are available for Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup, ranging from the headline outright to more targeted options that better reflect the team’s realistic ceiling. The key markets and indicative prices are outlined below.
Outright Winner: Available at 300/1 with leading operators. Paraguay are ranked 24th in the market among 48 teams. Extremely unlikely given the squad depth required for seven wins.
To Reach the Semi-Finals: Would require four consecutive wins or unbeaten runs against increasingly strong opposition. Reflects near-impossible odds territory given the squad profile.
To Win Group D: Available at 9/2. The United States as co-hosts are strong favourites, but Paraguay and Turkey are closely matched for second place and the group winner market carries some interest if Alfaro’s side start well.
To Reach the Round of 32: This market is the most value-relevant for Paraguay. With a winnable fixture against Australia in the final group game, a second-round appearance is genuinely possible.
Top Paraguay Goalscorer – Julio Enciso: Available at 699/1 for the Golden Boot. More relevant as an internal selection market, where Enciso, with four qualifying goals, is the likeliest source of Paraguay’s goals.
Top Paraguay Goalscorer – Miguel Almirón: Also available at 699/1 for the Golden Boot, reflecting his creative role rather than a pure goal threat, but worth tracking given his contribution across the campaign.
Stage of Elimination: Group stage exit is the most probable outcome given the competition in Group D, but the Australia fixture keeps the round of 32 in play as a realistic alternative scenario for Paraguay World Cup predictions.
Best Paraguay World Cup Bets
Main Pick: Paraguay to Reach the Round of 32
Paraguay’s defensive structure under Alfaro gives them a foundation to grind out a result, and the group fixture list hands them a nominally home game against Australia in Matchday 15. Enciso’s four qualifying goals and Almirón’s experience in transition are enough of an attacking threat to trouble a mid-tier opponent. A points tally of three or four from the group stage is achievable, making the round of 32 the most logical target market for Paraguay World Cup 2026 betting tips.
Lower-Risk Pick: Paraguay to Exit at the Group Stage
The honest reading of Paraguay’s qualifying record – three wins, two draws and one loss in the final six games, with limited goals against strong opposition – is that of a side capable of taking points from moderate competition but not consistently overcoming top-level sides. The United States and a well-organised Turkey side represent a tough double-header to open the group. If Alfaro’s men drop points in both those games, the Australia finale becomes a must-win, and that scenario is the most probable route to a group stage exit. At the best available price, this remains the statistically grounded outcome for Paraguay World Cup 2026 predictions.
Best Paraguay World Cup Odds by Sportsbook
The prices below represent the best available odds across leading operators at the time of writing. Odds are subject to movement as the tournament progresses and team news develops.
| Market | Best Price |
|---|---|
| Outright Winner | 300/1 |
| To Win Group D | 9/2 |
| Top Scorer – Julio Enciso | 699/1 |
| Top Scorer – Miguel Almirón | 699/1 |
| Top Scorer – Antonio Sanabria | 999/1 |
Odds are subject to change, and some markets may not be available at every operator.
How to Watch and Bet on the 2026 World Cup
All Paraguay matches at the 2026 World Cup will be broadcast free-to-air in the United Kingdom on ITV and BBC. Both broadcasters hold rights across the tournament, meaning coverage of Group D fixtures against the United States, Turkey and Australia will be available on BBC iPlayer and ITVX without a subscription. Kick-off times are in UTC-7, so UK viewers should account for the time difference when planning viewing.
Outright and group markets for Paraguay World Cup odds are available now across all leading operators, with prices likely to shorten or lengthen significantly once the group stage begins. Injuries, suspensions and unexpected early results tend to move lines quickly during a World Cup, so bettors monitoring the tournament should act on preferred prices before the opening fixtures rather than waiting for later rounds when the market will have already adjusted.
Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be kept enjoyable and within your means. If you or someone you know is experiencing difficulties related to gambling, free support is available through GambleAware and the Gambling Therapy helpline. The National Gambling Helpline is available on 0808 8020 133, 24 hours a day. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only.
Live Comments
Welcome to our Live Comments section, where new comments will appear automatically
Add a Comment